NDTV Explains: India vs China In Race For Arctic Oil, Gas, Shipping Routes

Welcome to the Arctic Circle.

The race to 'conquer' the world's final frontier is gathering steam and India is gently but firmly positioning itself in that contest, one which China has also entered and which has been given added urgency by Russian military actions in 2014 (the Crimean War) and 2022 (invasion of Ukraine).

The 'rewards' are staggering though - from oil and minerals to drinking water, from access to faster shipping routes to a possibly decisive upper hand in the global geopolitical and military arena.

A remote and largely inhospitable region of the world, the Arctic has emerged as the next global geopolitical and geostrategic hotspot, possibly even the next battlefield, thanks to climate change and the warming of polar ice caps. But its strategic importance has never really been in doubt.

It has, for the most part, been a question of access, specifically terrain so bleak it made extracting oil and other natural resources, navigating the waters, or maintaining military bases near-impossible.

Where is the Arctic?

What we identify as the Arctic is the northernmost region of our planet. The common definition is that area within the Arctic Circle, a line of latitude about 66.5 degrees north of the Equator.

Within this area are the Arctic Ocean and the polar ice caps, and over four million people from eight countries - the United States, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia.

Eight nations with territories inside the Arctic Circle form the Council.
Photo: Observer Research Foundation

There are also an estimated 500,000 people from indigenous tribal communities.

Together, these countries and communities inside the Arctic make up the Arctic Council and "carry the role as stewards of the region", and whom India has been 'engaging' for several years.

In 2013 India was made an 'observer nation' of the Council.

What is in the Arctic?

Compressed into approximately 14.5 million square kilometres, the Arctic holds 13 per cent of the world's undiscovered oil and 30 per cent of all undiscovered natural gas stores.

That amounts to 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, which are hydrocarbons extracted from natural gas or crude oil.re

Dark blue regions have at least one undiscovered oil and/or gas field.
Photo: United States Geological Survey

It also contains vast reserves of coal, iron, copper, zinc, nickel, bauxite, diamonds, and sulphides, and also millions of tons of phosphate used to make fertilisers.

The Arctic also holds an estimated 20 of the world's freshwater reserves, which is a commodity that could well become more valuable than any other in the not-too-distant future.

Dark green-shaded areas are believed to have over 10 billion barrels of undiscovered oil
Photo Credit: United States Geological Survey

There is gold too; the Fort Knox Gold Mine in Alaska is one of the largest in the world.

And Arctic shipping routes could allow maritime trade to cut down on 8,000 km as they ferry the estimated billions of tons of cargo shipped annually between the Europe and Asia.

Why is the Arctic important now

Because it is melting, at a rate nearly four times faster than anywhere else in the world

Ice levels in September 2017, for example, was 25 per cent smaller than end-of-summer averages from 1981 to 2010, and has been melting at an unprecedented rate - over 12 per cent per decade.

Global warming means the Arctic's ice caps and the vast stretches of frozen ice that otherwise make it impossible for most ships to pass - certainly not without an ice-breaker plowing a path.

Melting polar ice caps are an existential crisis for humanity; rising sea levels will flood coastal cities and low-lying areas, including Bangkok, Amsterdam, Ho Chi Minh City, and even parts of London. 

But they open the door to begin extracting those billions of barrels of oil, a treasure trove countries doing the extraction, for example, could use to reduce dependence on West Asian suppliers.

It also opens the door to millions of tons of coal and precious metals under the ice.

An icebreaker is a special-purpose ship or boat that navigates through ice-covered waters (File).

Overall, the melting of the ice caps has woken the world to the natural resources and strategic importance of the Arctic, both of which interest countries beyond the Council, including India.

In fact, in May 2025, the Observer Research Foundation and the Arctic Circle, a 60-nation "network of international dialogue and cooperation" met in Delhi to discuss Asia's involvement in Arctic affairs.

India v China for the Arctic

Back in 2018, China's first Arctic Policy spoke of a "mutually beneficial polar partnership", which would have included linking its Belt Road Initiative to the Northern Sea Route to create the 'Polar Silk Route'.

The resulting passageway, Beijing said, would shorten maritime travel time to Europe by 40 per cent.

The longer route, in use now, sees Chinese ships sail down south, through the Malacca Strait (between the Malay Peninsula and Indonesia, a chokepoint that allows the Indian Navy to monitor maritime traffic off its coastline), across the Indian Ocean, and then back up through the Suez Canal.

Since then, i.e., since articulating its Arctic Policy, China has been called itself as a 'near-Arctic state', and has sought a seat at the Arctic Council, something that is not likely to be granted.

However, Beijing too was given 'observer nation' status.

For China the Arctic quest is more about trade, really, than anything else.

As one of the world's largest manufacturers (of pretty much everything), it needs fast and reliable distribution routes, and ships are generally cost-effective compared to planes.

And the Malacca chokepoint isn't ideal, particularly if there should be military conflict with India.

Faster maritime trade is a big attraction for India too.

India's involvement with the Arctic dates back to 1920, when the Svalbard Treaty was signed in Paris. And today it is one of a handful of nations to have a permanent base in the Arctic.

Set up in 2008 and called 'Himadri', it is in the Norwegian territory of Svalbard, roughly 1,200km from the North Pole, and has provided field and laboratory support to scientists back home.

India's research base in Arctic, 'Himadri'. Photo: National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research

Unlike China, India is seen as slow-playing its Arctic card, choosing to cooperate with the Council and present itself as a 'responsible stakeholder' by engaging with all sides on key issues, including, for example, research into microbial organisms and hydropower generation.

India has good ties with Norway, for example, with which it has studied climate change, and also has a friendly relationship with both Russia and the United States.

All this, though, could change, particularly as China steps up designs on the Arctic, which includes the tried-and-tested method of pumping billions into ' infrastructure projects.

Beijing has reportedly bought real estate in Iceland, invested money in Greenland airports and bought into Russian projects, though they have been rebuffed by Norway, Sweden, and Finland.

Nevertheless, this has alarmed the West, and this has given India an opportunity, a chance to be the friendly and trustworthy face in the growing list of suitors for the Arctic Circle.

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